By Scott Bowles, USA Today, May 16, 2005
Jennifer Lopez and Will Ferrell did their best to get people into theaters this weekend, but they weren’t enough to stop the three-month box-office slump.
Now it’s up to George Lucas’ Star Wars, Episode III: Revenge of the Sith to jump-star summer.
For the 12th straight weekend, ticket sales lagged behind the same period last year, the industry’s longest slump since a 14-week drought in 1991, according to box-office estimates from Nielsen EDI.
The weekend’s poor performance leaves Hollywood about 6% behind last year’s pace and puts more pressure on Revenge of the Sith. The film opens in many markets at midnight Wednesday.
Last year, Shrek 2 opened to a stunning $108 million the weekend of May 19, meaning Sith will need a whopping debut – which early ticket sales indicate is likely – to keep the box office from lagging further behind. (Shrek 2 went on to make $436.5 million and was the biggest movie of last year.)
More important, analysts say, Star Wars will need to get audiences in the habit of going back to theaters and whet their appetites for upcoming big-event films such as Madagascar on May 24, Batman Begins on June 15 and War of the Worlds on June 29.
A few factors have been keeping audiences away. Ticket prices are rising, and more people are opting to see movies at home: DVD sales soared 33% in 2004 to $15.5 billion, according to the Digital Entertainment Group.
Still, there are hopeful signs. Ticket sales are about $200 million behind last year’s pace - $2.6 billion this year, bs. $2.8 billion at this time in 2004, and Sith is expected to make that much money easily.
“Star Wars needs to give audiences an experience they aren’t going to get anywhere else,” says Gitesh Pandya of BoxOfficeGuru.com. “It’s not just the money it could make. It’s getting bodies into the theaters, letting them watch trailers, and have a good time. With video games, DVDs, cable, it doesn’t take much for people to get out of the habit of going to movies.”
This weekend, audiences turned out in respectable numbers for Lopez’s Monster-in-Law, which took in an estimated $24 million, her best debut, Ferrell’s soccer comedy Kicking & Screaming managed second place and $20.9 million.
Jet Li’s Unleashed was a surprise No. 3 with $10.6 million, beating Kingdom of Heaven, which fell a sizable 51% from its debut for $9.6 million. Final figure are due today.
Overall, weekend ticket sales totaled only $92 million, continuing a slump that is the third worst since EDI began keeping track in 1983.
Studio executives aren’t ready to panic just yet.
“Once a movie connects with audiences, it builds momentum,” says Chuck Viane, distribution chief for Disney, which releases Herbie: Fully Loaded on June 22. “If you look at the slate this summer, it’s not going to be that hard to make up the difference if these big pictures just reach their potential.”
Rick McCallum, producer of the new Star Wars trilogy, thinks that Hollywood may have dug its own hole by over-hyping movies that haven’t delivered.
“They’ve learned how to market and advertise movies so they can make $100 million,” he says. “But audiences are getting wise to that. The only way you’re going to be profitable is by improving the product and making good films.”